创业者如何给自己的公司估价
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Looking for investors? Here’s how to value your startup
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今日位于芝加哥的Red Rocket Venture风投公司的合伙人George Deeb发布文章，对于创业者如何对自己的新创公司进行估价的问题提供了建议，文章如下：
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By George Deeb, Thursday, 27 Feb '14 , 08:22pm
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我经常被创业者们问到这样一个问题：到底如何给自己的公司一个合适的估价。通常来说，问这些问题的人，多半是已经进入相关的融资或收购阶段，面临一些投资人的报价。我的回答总是很简单，就像所有的生意一样，这取决于别人愿意为你付多少钱。
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One of the questions I get, more often than not, is what is the appropriate valuation of my business. This is typically in conjunction with an upcoming financing or pending takeover offer. And, the answer is quite simple: like for anything, your business is worth what somebody is willing to pay for it.
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但是对于创业者来说还是有些不同，因为一个行业跟另一个行业的报价逻辑会相差很多。下面这些建议希望能够帮助你，给自己的新创公司报出一个合理的价格：
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The methodologies applied by one buyer in one industry may be different from the methodologies applied by another buyer in another industry. Here are some key drivers on how to value your business, in a way that will make sense to you, and will be in line with investor expectations.
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1.供求关系
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Supply and demand
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首先，不论如何也不要忘了经济学的最基本原理：供求关系。一种产品越稀少，需求就会越强烈，所谓的供不应求，比如你有一项很好的专利技术，那么就会有很多的投资人竞相追逐。最好能够吸引多个投资人追逐你的公司，不要让投资人觉得他是唯一一个对你有兴趣的人，这样会对你的估价非常不利。所以在你进行融资之前，一定要先做好工作，把自己的业务弄好，表现出创新和价值，这样才能将你的估价最大化。一个过于竞争激烈的行业中，很难得到好的报价，另外，没有创新性的创业公司，也会把估计标准降低。
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To start, let’s not forget about the obvious: the natural economic principles of supply and demand apply to valuing your business. The more scarce a supply (e.g., your equity in a hot new patented technology business), the higher the demand (e.g., multiple interested investors competing for the deal, and driving up your valuation in the process). If you cannot create “real demand” from multiple investors, “perceived demand” can often work the same when dealing with one investor. Never have an investor think they are the only investor pursuing your business, as that will hurt your valuation. And, before you start soliciting investment, make sure your business will be perceived as new and unique to maximize your valuation. A competitive commodity business, or a “me too” story, will be less demanded, and hence, will require a lower valuation to close your financing.
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2. 关注你所在的行业
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Your industry
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另外，如上面所说，每个行业都有自己独特的估价逻辑和方法。相比一家家庭餐馆或者一个普通的网络插件开发公司，一家创新生物技术公司的估价肯定要高很多了。比如一家餐馆的估价应该在它各种资产的3到4倍左右；而一家互联网公司，如果流量很可观，那么估价应该在年营收的5到10倍左右。
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Related to the above is the industry in which you operate. Each industry typically has its unique valuation methodologies. A next generation biotech business would get priced at a higher valuation than yet another family diner or widget manufacturer. As an example, a new restaurant may get valued at 3-4x EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) and a hot dot com business with meteoric traffic growth could get valued at 5-10x revenues.
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所以在你和投资人进行相关的洽谈之前，花些时间研究下，你所在的行业最近一段时间的融资和收并购消息，还是很有必要的。如果你找不到相关的融资统计数据，那就找个顾问帮帮你吧。
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So, before you approach investors with valuation expectations, make sure you have studied the valuations acheived in recent financings or M&A transactions in your industry. If you feel you do not have access to relevant valuation statistics for your industry, engage a financial advisor that can assist you.
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3. 你的发展状况
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Your stage of development
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另外，你自身的发展状况也是一个决定估价的重要因素。我个人习惯把新创公司分为4个发展阶段，简单的形容就像学生时代的不同年级一样。
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Where you are in your stage of development is a key driver in determining valuation. I like to break-out startup growth into four stages, not too dissimilar to four years of high school education: freshman, sophomores, juniors and seniors.
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刚成立：这时多半只是一个简单的产品，有可能还处在测试之中。那么要么自掏腰包承担风险，如果要融资，目标应该在5万到50万美元左右。
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Freshman are a piece of paper to beta site (bootstrap financed—raise $50K to $500K).
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二年后：测试完成，有了产品线，甚至还有了初始的用户。这时，你的目标应该是天使投资人的种子基金，金额大致在50万到100万美元左右。
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Sophomores are beta site to full production site with initial users (seed stage angels—raise $500K to $1MM).
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三年后：当你的公司业务扩大，营收增长，达到100万美元左右时，那么可以考虑进行A轮投资，融资金额应该在100万到500万美元之间。
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Juniors have achieved a full proof of concept around their business, with rapid user or revenue growth, approaching up to $1MM in revenues (Series A venture capital—raise $1MM to $5MM).
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四年后：这时的新创公司应该有几百万的营收额，并且准备进行规模化的扩张。那么这时你需要价值500万到5000万美元之间的B轮融资。
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Seniors have grown to multi-millions of revenues and are ready to materially scale their businesses with a significant capital raise (Series B venture capital—raise $5MM to $50MM).
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总之，不同的创业阶段，估价标准也不相同。
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Which each stage of your growth, your valuation is moving up along the way.
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4. 估价技巧
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The valuation techniques
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另外，创业者还可以了解下，投资人面对一家新创公司时的估计技巧，主要包括下面这几点：
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In terms of techniques investors use to value your business, investors will study things like:
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你所在行业，最近完成的融资交易的企业的营业额、现金流、净收入等;
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revenue, cash flow or net income multiples from recent financings in your industry
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你所在行业，最近完成的收并购交易的企业的营业额、现金流、净收入等;
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revenue, cash flow or net income multiples from recent M&A transactions in your industry
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另外还有对你未来现金流的折现分析。
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a discounted cash flow analysis of forecasted cash flows from your business.
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通常来说，根据你的行业和发展状况，会在上面这些因素的基础上，再乘上一个系数，大约在3到10倍之间。当然在所有的因素之中，最为重要的就是今后的预期收入，比如你的年收入能有25%的增长，那么就可以用年盈利的25倍当做估价了。如果你的公司暂无盈利，那么就要从长期的成长性来考虑了。如果用营业额作为基数，那么倍数一般在0.5到1之间，技术成长快的企业可以适当放大到1到3左右，对于那些爆发性的新互联网公司有的可以达到10倍。但是如果你的企业暂时连收入都没有，那么除了一些特殊情况，将很难对你的业务进行估价了。另外，私人公司要比上市公司的估价要相应的低30%。
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As mentioned earlier, these multiple ranges can be very wide, and vary substantially, within and between industries. As a rough ball park, assume EBITDA multiples can range from 3x to 10x, depending on your “story.” Forecasted earnings growth is typically the #1 driver of your valuation (e.g., a 25 percent annual net income grower may see a 25x net income multiple, and a 10 percent annual net income grower may see a 10x multiple). If there are no earnings yet, with your business plowing profits into long term growth, then revenue multiples or some other metric would be used. Revenue multiples for established businesses are typically in the 0.5x-1x range, tech grow companies can be in the 1x-3x range, and in extreme scenarios, can get as high as 10x for high flying dot commers with explosive growth. But, that is, by far, the exception to the rule. And, if there are no revenues for your business – unless you are a biotech business waiting for FDA approval or some new mobile app grabbing immediate market share before others for examples – raising funds for your business, at any valuation, will be very difficult. Investors need some initial proof of concept to get their attention. Worth mentioning, private company valuations typically get a 25 percent to 35 percent discount to public company valuations. While at the same time, M&A transactions can come at a 25 percent to 35 percent premium to financing valuations, as the founders are taking all their upside off the table. Make sure you adjust for these when comparing to any public market data.
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5. 相关的经验法则
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Rule of thumb
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投资人天天看大量的项目，对于市场脉搏把握的非常准确，所以创业者也要多选几个备选的融资方案。然后仔细比较他们的估价，并尽力跟每个投资人洽谈。一般来说，按照相关的经验，创业者要准备出让25%到35%的股权作为融资的交换。比如一家处于种子期的公司计划融资50万美元，那么他们的合理估价应该在200万左右吧。
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At the end of the day, the investor will have a very good sense to what a business is worth, and what they are willing to pay for it. As they see deals all the time and typically have their finger on the market pulse. So, collect a few term sheets from multiple investors, and compare and contrast valuations and other terms, and play them off each other to get the best deal. As a rule of thumb, expect to give up 25 to 35 percent of your equity, in each equity financing you make. As an example, a seed stage sophomore raising $500K may be valued at $2MM post-money. An expansion stage senior raising $10MM, may be valued at $25MM post-money, as examples.
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6. 尽力让你的投资人有10倍的收益
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Back into a valuation that gets your investor a 10x return
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要想在跟其他的新创公司的竞争中胜出，最为关键的还是要给你的投资人带来巨大的收益。现在的投资人都在寻找10倍的投资回报。比如说，你的估价为500万美元，投资人占股25%价值125万，那么就要拿出一份计划，证明你们能在5年之内把投资人的预期收益推高到1250万。
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Most importantly, you need to put on the hat of your investor in setting valuation to get them excited about your startup vs. the hundreds of other startups they see each year. Investors are looking for that next 10x return opportunity, so make sure your five year forecasted financials will grow large enough in that time frame to afford them a 10x return. As an example, if you are worth $5MM today post-financing, and the new investor owns 25 percent of the company ($1.25MM stake), they are going to need a financial plan that will get their stake up to $12.5MM (and the company valuation up to $50MM) within five years, without any dilution from subsequent financings. This could mean driving EBITDA up to $5 to $10MM within that period. So, do not show them a financial forecast that grows less than that, and make sure you have built a credible sales and marketing plan to realistically achieve these levels before approaching investors.
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总之，给一家初创公司估价很复杂有很多方法，希望上述的建议能够受用。
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There are too many nuances to valuing a startup business than I could do justice in this short post, but hopefully, this gives you a good sense to the high level issues in play.
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