为什么说这个秋天将决定微软的生死命运？
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Why the fall of 2012 will determine Microsoft’s fate
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自施密特停止掌管谷歌后，他变得更有意思了。我不确定他具体在做什么，不过他看上去他真的很享受他在做的事。（他居然跳起了江南Style！）施密特一直都有些很有趣的观点，在他身上，洞察力与思想力胜于杀伐决断力，这是他作为谷歌CEO的缺陷，不过作为董事长，他就可以把他更理性、宽阔的思考展现出来，而不仅仅是从谷歌的角度。他并非一个兜售者，如果谷歌在某方面的确做得不好，他不会强迫你这么认为——比如Google+。
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Eric Schmidt sure has become fun since he stopped running Google. I’m not sure what the guy does, exactly, but he looks like he’s really having a good time doing it. (Look, there he is dancing Gangnam Style!) Schmidt has always been an interesting interview—he’s more thoughtful than ruthless, which was one of his shortcomings as Google’s CEO—but as chairman, he’s been able to really put his rational, expansive side on display. Schmidt’s role gives him enough inside access to understand what’s really going on at Google, yet—unlike a boss—he’s far enough removed from day-to-day operations to be able to see things from beyond just Google’s point of view. Schmidt is also not one for bluster; he won’t try to convince you that you Google’s ahead in some area of the tech business when, clearly, it isn’t. (See Google+).
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以上说这么多，只是想说，当埃里克·施密特对这个产业做出一些判断时，他不是在忽悠。你应该听他的。这次，当他重复他的判断：科技巨头是亚马逊、苹果、谷歌和Facebook，而没有微软时，施密特完全正确。
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All of which is to say: When Eric Schmidt makes grand pronouncements about the industry, he’s probably not just blowing smoke. You should listen to him. And when he repeated his claim, during an interview this week with Walt Mossberg and Kara Swisher, that the tech world is ruled by just four giants—Amazon, Apple, Google and Facebook—Schmidt was right on.
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这四个主导性平台会统治明天的数字世界：苹果有iOS、亚马逊有电子商务和AWS（云服务）、谷歌有Android和网络，Facebook拥有你的身份和社交图景。他们合在一起，对经济的每方面都会施加巨大的能量——当然，他们不会共事。他们相互之间多有争斗。不管你在哪个行业，你这行业未来数年都将被他们四巨头的竞争结果所改变。这四头无所不在。
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These four make the dominant platforms that will rule tomorrow’s digital world: Apple has iOS, Amazon has ecommerce and AWS, Google has Android and the Web, and Facebook possesses your identity and social graph. Together, they exert enormous power over every sphere of the economy—though of course they don’t work together. What’s fascinating is that they’re all working at odds with one another: Whatever industry you’re in, your next few years will be shaped by how these four battle for dominance over the world’s economy. Whatever you do, wherever you go, Amazon, Apple, Google and Facebook will be in your life. (I should note I’m in the tank for Schmidt’s Gang-of-Four view of the world: I’m writing a book about their coming tech dominance.)
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而施密特说他有意不提及微软，它只是一家经营得不错的公司，但是它没有让人看到：它在创造未来。
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“You left out Microsoft,” Swisher pointed out during the interview. “Deliberate,” Schmidt said. Schmidt has said that while he believes Microsoft is a well-run company, it hasn’t yet shown that it’s going to create the future.
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Win 8定生死，微软没有退路
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施密特是对的。今年早些时候，我曾说2012是微软之年。由于Win 8与WP的发布，我认为我们将见证微软最终一扫其萎靡之气、与苹果谷歌亚马逊等一起角逐移动年代主导性创新席位的时刻。我现在仍然认为并非没有可能。我们最近看到微软的动作：发布Surface平板、买下Skype、从更社交的角度去重新设计Bing、以及发布Outlook.com、明智地为Windows制订升级价格，都在暗示鲍尔默明白，要加入四巨头阵营的话，他应该做些什么。
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Schmidt is right. Early this year I pronounced 2012 to be “the year of Microsoft.” With Windows 8 and the fantastic Windows Phone, I argued that we could be witnessing the moment that Microsoft finally “shakes its malaise and takes its place alongside Apple, Google, and Amazon as a dominant innovator of the mobile age.” I still think that’s possible. Everything we’ve seen from Microsoft recently—the unveiling of the Surface tablet; the purchase of Skype; a big social-friendly redesign of Bing and the launch of Outlook.com; a sensible pricing plan for Windows upgrades—suggests that Steve Ballmer understands what he needs to do to join the four leaders.
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不过微软还没有加入进去，也没有确保就一定能到那。原因简单：我们并无任何线索。当普通用户把微软与移动联系在一起，他们会想到什么呢？当Win 8本月晚些时候推出时，人们会认为这是一个披着过时外衣的新鲜之举吗？或者他们准备从多大程度上为使用这个新软件做出行为改变？新的WP手机会推动人们去关注微软落后的移动操作系统？或者他们仍然更爱iPhone？在这个时候，这些可以鲜明定义公司的问题，在微软的未来闪烁不定。
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But he’s not there yet. And he’s not guaranteed to get there, for one simple reason: We don’t have any clue, yet, what most customers—i.e., regular non-tech people—think of Microsoft’s mobile efforts. When Windows 8 hits the streets later this month, will people consider it a fresh, exciting take on an aging interface? Or will they recoil at the jarring difference between the new and the old, at how radically they’ve got to change how they work to accommodate the new software? And will the new Windows Phone finally push people to take a look at Microsoft’s left-behind mobile OS? Or will they be too thrilled by the iPhone to even care? At the moment, these huge, company-defining questions loom over Microsoft’s future.
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我们不久就可见到答案。不夸张的说，接下来一个月时间，是微软自发布Windows 95以来最具历史性的时刻。如果人们给出更多时间去习惯Win 8，这个软件可能是微软重生的一个信号。
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But soon we’ll have answers. Indeed, it’s not an exaggeration to call the next month the most important time in Microsoft’s history since the launch of Windows 95. There’s a lot to love about the new Windows, and if people give themselves time to get used to it, they may well come to regard the software as a sign of Microsoft’s rebirth.
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微软赌用户想要在电话、平板、桌面设备之间拥有同一个界面与操作系统。这是一个大赌注。如果微软赌赢了，这个战略会进一步延长：它会发挥它在PC垄断的优势，推动开发者去为平板与电话开发应用，以图与苹果抗衡。同时，借助Surface平板，它迫使其他PC制造商去为Win 8做世界级的硬件。微软希望Surface点燃的战争可以创造一个非iPad、还不错的平板产品种类。
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Microsoft is betting that users will want a single interface that does everything—an OS that feels the same across your phone, your tablet and your desktop. It’s a huge gamble, but if Microsoft gets it right, the strategy could play off: The firm would be able to leverage its PC monopoly to push developers into building apps for tablets and phones—potentially bringing Microsoft’s app store to parity with Apple’s. Meanwhile, by building the Surface, it is forcing other PC manufacturers to create world-class hardware for Windows 8—if Dell and HP and Lenovo don’t step up, they’ll be outshined by Microsoft itself. In that way, the Surface steals a page from Google’s playbook: In the same way that the search giant built Chrome as a way to spur competitors to improve their browsers (because, in the end, better browsers are better for Google), Microsoft is hoping that Surface-sparked competition will create a new class of not-awful non-iPad tablets.
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如果所有这些真的实现的话，从Win 8到WP，那么微软就会回来，四人帮会成为五巨头。
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So if all that happens—and if, as a bonus, all the joy for Windows 8 bleeds over into renewed enthusiasm for Windows Phone—then Microsoft will be back. The gang will expand to five.
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不过在接下来几周里事情可能演变成别的结局，悲惨的结局。如果Win 8飞不起来，如果人们对它的反应愤怒多于愉悦，2012之秋就会是微软沦落的开始。这并非不可能。新的Windows版本跟老版本如此不同，足以引起全球用户焦虑。
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But there’s another story that could unfold in the next few weeks. A dire one. If Windows 8 doesn’t fly, if people react to it with fury rather than joy, the fall of 2012 could mark the beginning of the end of Microsoft. This is not implausible. The new Windows is just different enough from the old to cause massive anxiety for hundreds of millions of people around the world.
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如果这焦虑成了Win 8推出后的主调，办公室职员抱怨他们完全不知道怎么去处理过去处理那一切，那将很快导致Win 8死亡。
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If that anxiety becomes the Windows 8 launch narrative—if initial reviews dwell on the big adjustments that dyed-in-the-wool Windows users will have to make to accommodate the upgrade, and if office workers start complaining that they can’t figure out how to do anything they used to do in this blasted new thing—that would quickly seal the fate of Windows 8.
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如果Win 8失败，这将是微软的灾难。记住，微软没有方案B。这不是像新可乐那样，如果人们讨厌新版，微软可以轻易用老版来修复。因为人们对老版Windows也忍受不了太多了，老的Windows生意正在死亡，这本来是新版推出的原因。对微软来说，Win 8是惟一一场游戏，它倾尽全力。
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And if Windows 8 fails, it would be calamitous for Microsoft. Remember that Microsoft doesn’t have a Plan B. This isn’t like New Coke, where, if people hate the new thing, Microsoft could easily fix the software by replacing it with Windows Classic. That’s because people won’t tolerate Windows Classic much longer either; the Windows Classic business is dying—that was the entire point for coming up with something new. For Microsoft, Windows 8 is the only game in town. It will all come down to this.
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坦白说，我不知道会发生什么。我想Windows桌面用户一开始会被Win 8吓着的，但我不知他们这种感觉会持续多长时间。如果不太长，微软还有机会。否则，长达数十年的老“英特尔—微软”帝国将开始崩塌。没有比这更大的赌注了。今年年底，我们将知道，我们是在见证一个新技术王国的开始，还是一个结束的开始。
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And, honestly, I have no idea what will happen. I think desktop Windows users will be initially spooked by 8, but I can’t say how long their stress will last. If it doesn’t last long, Microsoft has a chance. Otherwise, the decades’-old Intel-Windows empire will begin to crumble. The stakes couldn’t be bigger. By the end of the year, we’ll know whether we’ve just witnessed a new tech beginning—or the beginning of the end.
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